Red Flags Rising: Conservatives Lose Ground in Three of Four By-Elections
Warning signs are flashing for the Conservative Party after recent by-elections, as Pierre Poilievre's increasing negatives and strategic missteps raise concerns for our party's future.
Opposition parties traditionally gain ground in by-elections, an opportunity for Canadians to protest without unseating the status quo. With two ridings already being strongholds and a previously held suburban riding, we should have claimed decisive victory in three out of four battles. Instead, we barely eked out a win in one of our safest seats east of Manitoba, secured only two in total, and watched our support wane in three constituencies.
Slipping Support
The by-elections were intended to signal a Conservative resurgence, especially given the recent missteps by the Trudeau Liberals. Instead, they served as a jarring wakeup call, exposing our weaknesses and shattering the illusion of unstoppable momentum. Rather than capitalizing on the Liberals' missteps, we find ourselves in a race to protect our own bastions.
Barely Holding On in Oxford
Oxford, a steadfast Conservative stronghold our united party has not lost since 1949, barely stayed within our grasp, with our victory margin shrinking to single digits instead of the expected 40% margin. This close call, coupled with a significant drop in our vote share since 2021, suggests we are struggling to maintain, let alone advance, our foothold. Some might point to local politics as a significant factor in Oxford. But this dramatic drop in support isn't a harbinger of an imminent government-forming party. It's a grim reminder of our near-loss in the 2013 Brandon Souris by-election, which we blamed on local party issues. While we held onto our seat in Brandon Souris, we found ourselves defeated in the general election just two years later. There were red flags all over that by-election, and I too missed them.
The Poilievre Problem
Deeply unsettling are the escalating negatives for Pierre Poilievre. His divisive approach, which used to serve as a battle cry for our base, increasingly feels like a millstone, hampering our progress, pushing away potential supporters and aggravating our party's identity crisis.
His negatives with women are at an unprecedented level, a phenomenon I cannot recall ever witnessing before with a candidate for prime minister being so intensely disliked by one gender. This level of disparity could have dire consequences for our future prospects.
Yet, Poilievre possesses a remarkable knack for communication when focused on the right issues. Had he led us into the 2019 election, his rhetoric could have won us enough seats to form a government. Conversely, if Poilievre had been at the helm in the 2021 election and succumbed to his instincts, leading the Conservative Party into an ill-advised battle against vaccines and mandates, we could have found ourselves crippled, reduced to holding a mere double-digit number of seats instead of the triple-digit count expected of leading parties. The high stakes nature of his leadership presents both opportunities and risks for our party.
Battling the Far-Right
Our struggle against Maxime Bernier's PPC in Portage-Lisgar led us into a thorny battlefield, where extreme far-right issues took centre stage, veering us away from core Conservative principles. The burn-and-pillage tactics we used to keep the PPC below the 20% threshold forced our party to engage with contentious subjects, such as supporting the now-banned practice of conversion therapy for LGBTQ+ people, staking a position on abortion, and launching an unseemly assault on Bernier for wearing a pride shirt. Despite our all-out campaign, Bernier still managed to secure over 17% of the vote in Portage-Lisgar. We may have clawed back some of the far-right vote, but this success raises the red flag even higher: at what cost to our image and broader appeal?
Missteps and Missed Opportunities
While we held onto Portage-Lisgar, our tactical misstep echoed in Winnipeg South Centre and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, where the Liberals outpaced us significantly. Our rallying cry, "send Justin Trudeau a message," seems to have backfired, turning into a warning siren for our own leadership.
Winnipeg South Centre, a seat we held the last time we formed a government, was ripe for the taking. Yet, instead of mounting an offensive, we were forced to funnel our resources into safeguarding what we already had. This is not the strategy of a party seeking to grow and seize power. The retraction of our support in Winnipeg South Centre raises perhaps the biggest red flag of all.
A Bitter Spring Offensive
Following a formidable performance this spring, wherein Conservatives challenged the Liberals at every turn, forced David Johnston to step down from the foreign interference probe, and cornered their ministers on a myriad of issues, it was anticipated that the wind was finally in our sails. We had successfully positioned ourselves as the champions of key public concerns such as inflation and the cost of living, resonating with the pulse of the nation. Yet, as the House of Commons rises for the summer break, the anticipated sweet taste of victory has turned bitter.
Facing the Future
In these by-elections, the Conservatives fell short. We must now focus on the ultimate goal: winning a majority government in the general election. To achieve this, we need to confront the red flags, accept our shortcomings, and adjust our course.
What makes this task even more critical is that we fought these battles while the Liberal war room was largely inactive, launching only light, late attacks. We can't expect such leniency in a general election against the country's most formidable political force. If we bury our heads in the sand, we're doomed to repeat past mistakes, with dire consequences for our party and our country.
I am not a fan of Justin Trudeau, but as long as Polievre is your leader, I will vote Liberal just to make sure that such a divisive individual does not take over the country.
It's not just women that loathe Poilievre and the CPC, check out the data: the more education one is exposed to, the less likely they are to vote CPC. Throw in the disgust toward Poilievre personally and take a look at his or Danielle Smith's policy priorities and ask yourself this question? Do the "conservatives" [Whatever you call the "big-C" parties these days they are not Progressive Conservatives.] ever consider what may have become of the conservative movement had it taken a Lougheed turn rather . . . evolving into some form of Trump-loving, hate spewing, 'I hate the Canada we have now,' recidivists? By that I mean Mulroney's paper envelopes full of $1,000 bills, Harper's team being convicted of election misdoings, Dean Del Mastro going to jail . . .
I think I am a conservative Canadian: 75 years old, University educated, born and bred Albertan and I absolutely despise what the conservative movement in Canada has become. Convince me I am wrong?
ps ~ If you want to hire me and get a real earful, send me a job offer. laugh
j a m e s