Today's By-Elections: Conservative Surge vs. Poilievre's Undertow
While a Conservative wave is expected to rise in today's by-elections, the undertow of Poilievre's diminishing popularity could pose a challenge.
Having served as the Director of Political Operations for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and National Campaign Manager for the Conservative Party of Canada, I am familiar with the shifting tides of Canadian politics and the subtle dance of by-elections. These smaller elections often act as a bellwether for broader political trends, a role often overlooked due to the more immediate impact of national polls.
Today, three by-elections in English Canada are unfolding against a backdrop of political uncertainty. The Conservative Party, riding a 7% lead over Trudeau's Liberals in national polls, seems poised to take control. The current turbulence of Trudeau's term only adds to the promising outlook for our party. Yet, as we set sail on this crucial electoral voyage, our captain, Pierre Poilievre, finds himself navigating the treacherous waters of growing unpopularity (one poll by Abacus Data shows Poilievre's negatives have nearly doubled over the last year.) The question lingers like a gathering storm: Will Poilievre's divisive approach capsize our Conservative surge, or can we weather the storm and chart a successful course?
Poilievre's reputation is complicated, to say the least. The backlash against his brash, confrontational approach and fondness for impassioned rhetoric is becoming more visible day by day, with national polling showing his negatives at record highs. His determination to energize and ensure loyalty among existing supporters is seemingly backfiring, causing those outside the party's inner sanctum to feel alienated and driving a deeper divide. For these by-elections, it's crucial to consider: will Poilievre's approach and growing unpopularity cost us critical votes?
By-elections are often a fertile ground for opposition gains, a low-stakes arena for voters to voice their discontent without toppling the existing political order. Through the lens of this observer's spyglass, today’s by-elections present a compelling opportunity to measure the Conservative's ability not only to secure all three English Canada seats but to extend their reach beyond their 2021 general election results.
In the Conservative stronghold of rural Ontario - Oxford - predicting a Conservative victory is hardly a gamble. Our wins typically surpass a 30-40% margin over our nearest opponent. While a victory here won't necessarily reflect our influence in the crucial Toronto hub, a margin above 40% would affirm Poilievre's pull and validate our party's national standing.
Another Conservative triumph is expected in Portage-Lisgar, given our history of securing 60-80% of the total votes. The key challenge is to limit Maxime Bernier's PPC to less than their previous 20% threshold. Success here would signify the diminishing influence of the PPC, relegating it to a mere vehicle for Bernier's ego. Conversely, a PPC performance above 20% highlights their staying power and persistent appeal to a segment of the electorate and casts doubt on the Conservative's strategy of electing a far-right leader like Pierre Poilievre to win that vote back, to “bring it home”, if you will.
The race in Winnipeg South Centre should promise the most gripping spectacle. This suburban seat epitomizes the kind of region pivotal for Conservative victory. It's a seat that our party successfully captured during our last tenure in power, attesting to its strategic importance. The air of confidence among our party ranks is palpable. If you engage with any Conservative party staffer these days, they're likely to speak more enthusiastically about their projected government roles post the next general election, rather than their current duties.
And it's in seats like these that the party's confidence is put to the test. Pierre Poilievre himself has been galvanizing the caucus with his weekly lectures, assuring them that if they follow his lead, they will "bring it home" and secure victory in the next general election.
If there's truth to the confident buzz within our party, if the swell of optimism about the next general election isn't just bluster, then Winnipeg South Centre is exactly the sort of battleground where we should expect to see that confidence manifested and validated.
In the face of today's by-elections, we find ourselves at a critical juncture. The Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre, our controversial captain, are both under the microscope. Poilievre's polarizing personality, coupled with his plummeting approval ratings, makes for a compelling narrative. It forces us to pose a pivotal question: Can we navigate a course to victory under a captain who has managed to stir up a storm among a significant segment of potential voters?
Should our expectations materialize, the by-elections will serve as a validation of his tactics and leadership. A sweeping victory across English Canada, especially in pivotal battlegrounds like Winnipeg South Centre, would signal smooth sailing ahead. It would underline the electorate's disillusionment with Trudeau's Liberals and cement Conservative dominance.
However, anything less than a robust showing would raise red flags. It would be a clear indication of a turbulent journey on the horizon. If Poilievre cannot live up to the expectations, it would necessitate a reassessment of his strategy, his leadership, and his connection with the electorate. More than a mere political contest, the outcome could determine whether our captain needs to batten down the hatches and brace for rough seas ahead.
Before we weigh anchor, I have two final quick thoughts.
Firstly, although there's a fourth by-election happening in Quebec, it's essentially a foregone conclusion with the Liberals retaining their stronghold, so it doesn't figure into our English Canada analysis.
Secondly, my absence from this platform last week was due to my dedicating time to editing my forthcoming book - a process that, like navigating the unpredictable waters of politics, often involves making tough decisions for the sake of the journey. I appreciate your understanding and look forward to sharing more about this endeavor in due course.
But for now, our eyes are fixed on the by-elections - the compass guiding our course, affirming our confidence, and providing invaluable insights, whether we're charting calm seas or bracing for stormy weather.
Good article. I believe Pierre P is dividing our party…..he is embarrassment…..but worst of all we never hear strategy going forward. He is so busy critiquing Trudeau and going over past issues …..his overall tone is despicable.
What bugs me about articles such as this is that no matter what the outcome of the by-elections (win, lose, short-term, long-term, etc.) the author (Fred) is going to be proven right. No matter what the outcome, Fred is going to be able to point to some aspect of this article as evidence that he's right about political strategy, and that everyone should listen to him on such matters.
But this is a false analysis. Paraphrasing Karl Popper, if the theory cannot be proven wrong, then it's not a very useful theory at all and should be rejected. A better and more interesting analysis, in my opinion, would be if Fred had offered concrete strategies for his "captain" (as presumably he's well on-board as a loyal a crew member on this voyage?) to gain a bounce in popularity as the Poilievre style of messaging becomes fatigued over time. What is it? Should Poilievre find a few areas of common ground with the other leaders in order to demonstrate crowd-pleasing contrition and unity? Stuff like that sometimes resonates with Anglo voters across the political spectrums. Or should Poilievre double-down and move beyond merely pointing out the flaws of the government and take some of these attacks against the Trudeau Liberals to the next level – that is, such that change is actually forced? I'd be interested to hear what Fred thinks on actual strategies that should be employed, instead of un-falsifiable platitudes. If you don't like Poilievre's current strategies, what is the playbook to be used instead?
What I think is going on here, however, is something pretty foreboding for the conservative movement in Canada. Throughout the Harper era, the Reform conservatives had (wrongly) concluded that they had successfully eradicated the "old guard" tories from the east, and this has built up dangerous levels of jealousy and reactionary infighting within the movement. In the result, we see questionable leadership choices being made (or, ahem, forced) from time-to-time, and when a competent leader does appear, if they are Preston-approved they end up being undermined by a large part of their own crew while in the captain's chair. Fred's article sort of resonates with this, I think, and this sort of infighting is not looking good for Canadian conservatism overall. The sort of UK-style conservative intrigue that so many strategists seem to salivate over is a model that won't function well here in Canada – the status of conservatism is simply much more precarious here than there. The UK we are not (and why'd we'd want to model a conservative movement here on the one over there is beyond me, in any event). Rather, Canadian conservatism needs a crew pulling in the same direction. So let's have it – strategies that can actually be measured for their efficacy over time and accordingly proven right or wrong. Show us, Fred, that you have the strategies to make a difference here – please don't just set up a future "I told ya so!"