In the heart of Canada, amid the fertile plains of Manitoba, the electoral district of Portage-Lisgar stands as a bastion of conservative thought and tradition. As Candice Bergen's illustrious political career approaches its twilight, the forthcoming by-election threatens to unleash tremors with the potential to undermine the foundations of Canadian conservatism. At the epicenter of this political earthquake, two titanic forces vie for supremacy: Canada's Conservative Party, led by the astute Pierre Poilievre, and the insurgent People's Party of Canada, helmed by the provocative Maxime Bernier.
Bernier's Bold By-Election Bid
The drama surrounding the by-election in Portage-Lisgar is set to escalate further, as Maxime Bernier himself is poised to announce later this week that he will be running as the PPC candidate. This bold move raises the stakes for all involved, transforming the by-election into a high-profile showdown between the leader of the insurgent PPC and the establishment Conservatives.
With Bernier's entrance into the race, the by-election will not only test the strength of the PPC but also the mettle of the Conservative Party in facing the man who has emerged as the figurehead of the populist wave. The outcome will serve as a powerful statement about the state of conservatism in Canada and the direction it may take in the coming years.
Poilievre Battles Populist Surge
The electoral landscape of Portage-Lisgar has long been awash in blue, with Bergen once capturing a remarkable 76% of the vote. However, the emergence of the PPC, which garnered 22% in the last general election, has exposed a deepening fissure within the conservative bedrock of this rural constituency. As anti-mandate fervor provides fertile ground for Bernier's PPC, it remains uncertain whether Poilievre can mend the rift and restore unity within the Canadian right's ranks.
The by-election, therefore, represents more than a contest to fill a vacant seat; it serves as a litmus test for the future of conservatism in Canada. The stakes are high, as the outcome could determine whether the PPC is a force to be reckoned with or if Poilievre has successfully quelled the populist uprising within his camp.
Conservatism's Crucial Identity Test
For the Conservatives, a mere victory will not suffice. They must vanquish the PPC, crushing the spirit of this burgeoning political entity to ensure it does not rise again and undermine their electoral prospects nationwide. By many calculations, PPC vote-splitting cost the Conservative Party four to five seats in the last election, with some pundits claiming well over twenty. If the PPC manages to retain its 20% support base, this will be a significant symbolic victory for Bernier and his acolytes, emboldening them to further splinter the conservative vote in future elections.
Adding complexity to the situation was the Conservative nomination race in Portage-Lisgar, which pitted an erstwhile mild-mannered political staffer, now given to anti-mandate populism, against the former Manitoba Health Minister, whose stringent lockdown measures helped ignite the PPC's ascent in the first place. The anti-mandate populist prevailed. This internal strife only serves to cloud the broader political battle, exposing the Conservatives' susceptibility to populist insurrection.
Uniting Canada's Fractured Right
With the anti-mandate populist securing the nomination, the Conservative Party's direction is clear. They seek to embrace the populist, anti-establishment stance of the PPC to win back disaffected voters. But in doing so, do they risk further alienating moderate conservatives?
The stakes are high, and the outcome of this by-election could resonate across the Canadian political landscape. The struggle between the Conservatives and the PPC underscores the delicate balance required between extinguishing a political fire and inadvertently fanning the flames. The Conservative Party must cleverly navigate the populist wave buoying the PPC without losing sight of their core values and principles.
Populism Tests Conservative Mettle
To stave off the specter of a resurgent PPC, Poilievre must rally the conservative base, unifying it firmly behind him without alienating the general electorate, where the vast majority of votes reside. The task ahead is formidable, demanding a delicate mix of principle and pragmatism.
For Bernier, the stakes are equally high, as a strong showing in the by-election could cement the PPC's status as a viable alternative for disaffected conservatives. Bernier's arrest in Manitoba for traveling during the pandemic only serves to intensify the drama surrounding the by-election that he will personally contest, further galvanizing his supporters in their quest for political validation.
Canadian Conservatism's Defining Moment
Thus, the by-election in Portage-Lisgar is not merely a local contest, but rather a pivotal moment in the annals of Canadian conservatism. It serves as a battleground in which the competing forces of Poilievre's Conservatives and Bernier's PPC will be tested and refined, resulting in a fresh political synthesis that may influence the direction of the Canadian right for years to come.
In this high-stakes game, the Conservatives must not only prevail but crush the upstart PPC, lest they face the wrath of a discontented membership and a caucus demanding a more hardline approach to stave off Bernier's populist incursions. The by-election, in essence, is a referendum on the soul of Canadian conservatism, forcing the party to confront its own identity crisis and chart a course for the future.
The Future of Canadian Conservatism
In the end, it will be up to the voters of Portage-Lisgar to determine the victor in this titanic struggle, casting their ballots in a contest that is as much about the heart and soul of their political ideology as it is about representation in the House of Commons. As they step into the voting booth, they will carry not only the weight of their own convictions but the future of conservatism in Canada on their shoulders. With that awesome responsibility, the citizens of Portage-Lisgar will write the next chapter in the storied history of Canadian conservatism, shaping its destiny for generations to come.
Fred DeLorey served as Director of Political Operations under the leadership of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper and was the 2021 National Campaign Manager for the Conservative Party of Canada.
You lost me at the "astute" Polievre and the "provocative" Bernier.
Conservatives, if that's the right word for gents like this, sure seem to love adjectives. Astute, indeed. (I'd use a similar-sounding word, myself.) From Trump to Poilievre to Bernier to this guy, lots of adjectives, the better to cut down and demean and destroy, without having to specify or justify with facts. Despicable.